They rise and fall together. Over 894 days the two lines have a correlation of
+0.476. The idea that a BTC pump drains the trenches is not what this picture shows.
The rule this page trades
Every time BTC's 7 day return crossed above +10% since April 2024, launchpad volume
over the next 14 days went up in 11 of 14 cases, median +19%.
That is the alert. The window opens on the cross and closes about two weeks later.
Signal
What it means
Action
BTC 7d ≥ +10%
the impulse, trenches follow in 4 to 6 days
BUY TRENCHES
share 30%+ off its low
money is already arriving, confirmed
BUY TRENCHES
share 30%+ off its high
the crowd that was here has left
STAY OUT
BTC 7d ≤ -10%
risk is coming off everywhere
STAY OUT
anything else
nothing has crossed
HOLD
Every time the trenches were hottest and coldest
When
Trench share
BTC
What it was
Sep to Oct 2025
3.9 to 4.9%
$112k
the top. BTC near its high, trenches at their hottest
Oct to Nov 2024
2.4 to 2.5%
$68k to $76k
BTC broke out, trenches followed within weeks
Jan 2025
2.5%
$102k
the blow off
Jun 2026
0.76%
$62k
the floor. BTC at its low, nobody in the trenches
Feb 2026
0.90%
$68k
the winter
Read the two columns side by side. The trenches are hot when BTC is high and dead when BTC
is low. There is no month where BTC was strong and the trenches were empty.