Will this token run. Separate from Tech Score, which rates whether the project was actually built.
2026-09-17 00:48 UTC · 63209 tokens seen · 22378 predictions · 11103 with a verdict
Brier score: lower is better, and 0.25 is what a coin flip gets. Rug rate and run rate are the base rates the model has to beat by being right about WHICH ones, not by guessing the average.
| age | model | scored | rug brier | rug base | run brier | run base | buy calls | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | rules-v0 | 867 | 0.0923 | 0.003 | 0.0252 | 0.01 | 46 | +$4,169 |
| 5m | rules-v0 | 1009 | 0.0946 | 0.003 | 0.0143 | 0.009 | 25 | +$2,310 |
| 15m | rules-v0 | 1049 | 0.1294 | 0.07 | 0.0128 | 0.008 | 32 | +$3,596 |
| 1h | rules-v0 | 1750 | 0.3365 | 0.237 | 0.0122 | 0.006 | 59 | +$1,494 |
| 6h | rules-v0 | 6428 | 0.3114 | 0.4 | 0.0103 | 0.003 | 263 | $5,390 |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 570 | 4% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 218 | 16% | 1% |
| 25-50% | 63 | 35% | 5% |
| 50-75% | 13 | 54% | 23% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 770 | 4% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 200 | 14% | 2% |
| 25-50% | 29 | 33% | 7% |
| 50-75% | 7 | 56% | 43% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 753 | 4% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 189 | 14% | 1% |
| 25-50% | 33 | 32% | 12% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 1002 | 4% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 283 | 14% | 1% |
| 25-50% | 50 | 31% | 10% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 2749 | 3% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 984 | 13% | 0% |
| 25-50% | 119 | 31% | 6% |
| day | scored | buy calls | hits | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2633 | 79 | 16 | +$9,731 |
| 2026-09-14 | 2540 | 77 | 4 | +$2,933 |
| 2026-09-15 | 3469 | 155 | 2 | $1,657 |
| 2026-09-16 | 2460 | 114 | 1 | $4,826 |
| 2026-09-17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
Confident and wrong in both directions. This is the list that decides what feature gets added next.
| token | age | called | p(run) | actual | why it said so |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRBL | 1h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1193 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| PIZ | 1h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | people looked, no smart money followed [1193 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| PNL | 1h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1209 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| DB | 1h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | buys lead sells | nobody ever looked at it [1209 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Prostite | 1h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | | people looked, no smart money followed [1209 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| KONG | 1h | no run | 0.02 | RUGGED | dev made 44 tokens, none ever graduated | people looked, no smart money followed [1209 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| FANTA | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [947 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| FED25 | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [947 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| XCOIN | 6h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | | nobody ever looked at it [954 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| DREAMPAD | 6h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [954 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| $FLOKI | 6h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [947 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| RAREENEMIE | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [947 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| COMPUTEINU | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [960 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| DILEMMA | 6h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | | nobody ever looked at it [1174 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| TROLL | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [983 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| token | age | call | p(scam) | p(run) | because | ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIRACLE | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.05 | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [960 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 23m |
| usagino | 6h | no run | 0.16 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [954 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 27m |
| MULTISTRIKE | 6h | could run | 0.00 | 0.28 | 13 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | real socials, original art | nothing broke [960 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 29m |
| HUG | 6h | could run | 0.00 | 0.29 | 80 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | dev has graduated one before | social picked it up: the whole chain fired [972 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 34m |
| SWIVEL | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.10 | buys lead sells | people looked, no smart money followed [970 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 34m |
| OpenAI | 6h | no run | 0.16 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [980 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 42m |
| Volt | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.07 | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [991 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 54m |
| ND4 | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1006 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 59m |
| BREGMA | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.10 | real socials, original art | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1009 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 66m |
| PolsiaAI | 6h | could run | 0.02 | 0.28 | 13 smart wallets in | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | people looked, no smart money followed [1017 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 66m |
| LOWHNG | 6h | could run | 0.01 | 0.18 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | people looked, no smart money followed [1031 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 71m |
| usagino | 6h | no run | 0.39 | 0.07 | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1032 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 71m |
| Mouse | 6h | could run | 0.00 | 0.18 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | people looked, no smart money followed [1009 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 71m |
| CYNTRA | 6h | could run | 0.00 | 0.22 | 8 smart wallets in | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | smart money came, it never reached social [1031 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 71m |
| GRIFT | 6h | could run | 0.00 | 0.20 | 3 smart wallets in | real socials, original art | smart money came, it never reached social [1032 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 71m |
| CRANIOM | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.10 | buys lead sells | people looked, no smart money followed [1040 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 77m |
| SYNMAZE | 6h | no run | 0.01 | 0.10 | real socials, original art | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1040 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 77m |
| LUNCHPET | 6h | no run | 0.05 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1050 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 81m |
| STEVEBLOCK | 6h | no run | 0.43 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1134 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 98m |
| VLAD | 6h | no run | 0.04 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1117 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 98m |
| ISOG | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.09 | 6 smart wallets in | duplicate art or socials | smart money came, it never reached social [1131 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 98m |
| TRCH | 6h | could run | 0.01 | 0.16 | real socials, original art | buys lead sells | people looked, no smart money followed [978 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 100m |
| SKWT | 6h | no run | 0.38 | 0.05 | | people looked, no smart money followed [1134 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 101m |
| KILOFORGE | 6h | no run | 0.28 | 0.02 | top 10 hold 100% | people looked, no smart money followed [1122 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 101m |
| PRAXIS | 6h | could run | 0.42 | 0.29 | 7 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | smart money came, it never reached social [1152 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 101m |
| age band | predicts | name | brier on unseen day | trained on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | rug | lr-rug-1h-09150419 | 0.1113 | 286 rows |
| 6h | rug | lr-rug-6h-09160458 | 0.1391 | 1109 rows |
| r3600 | rug | rc-rug-r3600-09140535 | 0.3043 | 90 rows |
What is launching, and what is actually working. Every raw number is judged against this cohort, not on its own: twenty holders in five minutes means different things on a dead night and in a run.
Launchpads behind the runners: longxyz 76%, flap 12%, flap_stocks 12%
Words in the names of things that ran: aic, aicoin, antcoin, anth, anthrofig, anthropic, capitalllm, clawd, cllm, flywheel, giant, gpt, hello, investor, meatbag, moon, mooncoin, openai, pair, starlink, stockscow, susata, susuta, tether
| token | pad | paired to | mcap | holders | age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DARK | pools_trade_instant | 20 | $112,982 | 214 | 12m |
| RECORD | pons_v2 | 20 | $72,326 | 619 | 74m |
| X17Z | pons_v2 | 20 | $71,161 | 324 | 23m |
| SUPERBALL | pons_v2 | 20 | $68,126 | 260 | 47m |
| Depth | pons_v2 | 20 | $68,063 | 723 | 46m |
| GPU | longxyz | $59,863 | 73 | 33m | |
| ROBIN. | pools_trade_instant | 20 | $39,139 | 194 | 11m |
| SOURCES | longxyz | $38,610 | 34 | 58m | |
| COMFORT | pons | 11 | $26,385 | 3677 | 1m |
| MOZI | longxyz | $25,324 | 14 | 7m | |
| MOZI | longxyz | $25,324 | 14 | 7m | |
| JENSEN | longxyz | $24,528 | 17 | 87m |
258777 roster rows across 12587 tokens, 82895 distinct wallets. 32691 have a track record, 6305 of those on 3 tokens or more. 77400 pairs of wallets have turned up together on more than one token. Average entry, 4.8 minutes after launch.
| wallet | tokens | ran | hit rate | vs base | times early |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5638484ba2d2f1d1d35020572b0aa439a9869192 | 5 | 5 | 64% | 14.19x | 2 |
| 0x2d86499a410a9ac2139833ba8d6942b8a8700a7b | 3 | 3 | 52% | 11.55x | 2 |
| 0xb751855eb0680524d2d3910b8e56db795f2391ca | 3 | 3 | 52% | 11.55x | 3 |
| 0xe3d93f29b73f8d3cdd7bdad73f4682fbbde8bcb5 | 3 | 3 | 52% | 11.55x | 3 |
| 0x52616daf9dc68468506a84f9b5c11079e21d7b4c | 4 | 3 | 45% | 9.90x | 3 |
| 0x3dbd530e3f75fdec00e013e26bbf95ed40b7e5c2 | 4 | 3 | 45% | 9.90x | 3 |
| 0x734e23ddd71f320c1e5e2e4a81ad657163995eef | 5 | 3 | 39% | 8.66x | 4 |
| 0xf9193ec28e3bca91f66265e269c2913625293c9d | 5 | 3 | 39% | 8.66x | 4 |
| 0x34c04b28a75def20e2abb58df4a89d1eba55c73d | 5 | 3 | 39% | 8.66x | 4 |
| 0x69fb771c828175bd2c5a2c9ed6a167b12178395c | 5 | 3 | 39% | 8.66x | 4 |
| 0x735362a17532f349f2500425bad3cd891c3935d3 | 5 | 3 | 39% | 8.66x | 3 |
| 0x53ae6fa9ca4344832913ade74148b4904bce649b | 5 | 3 | 39% | 8.66x | 5 |
Hit rate is shrunk toward the 4.5% base rate, so a wallet with one lucky token does not show a 4x edge. "Ran" means the token peaked above $100,000 AFTER that wallet bought, never before.
| 09-17 00:46 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:46 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:43 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:41 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:39 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-17 00:33 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:33 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:31 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:31 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:28 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-17 00:23 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-17 00:18 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |