Will this token run. Separate from Tech Score, which rates whether the project was actually built.
2026-09-16 23:39 UTC · 87887 tokens seen · 49700 predictions · 11884 with a verdict
Brier score: lower is better, and 0.25 is what a coin flip gets. Rug rate and run rate are the base rates the model has to beat by being right about WHICH ones, not by guessing the average.
| age | model | scored | rug brier | rug base | run brier | run base | buy calls | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | rules-v0 | 1119 | 0.2175 | 0.164 | 0.0317 | 0.021 | 287 | +$20,708 |
| 5m | rules-v0 | 1255 | 0.2368 | 0.231 | 0.0329 | 0.022 | 267 | +$57,352 |
| 15m | rules-v0 | 1559 | 0.2288 | 0.235 | 0.0329 | 0.023 | 259 | +$12,293 |
| 1h | rules-v0 | 2484 | 0.2301 | 0.263 | 0.0356 | 0.028 | 444 | +$35,066 |
| 6h | rules-v0 | 5467 | 0.2279 | 0.308 | 0.0323 | 0.024 | 845 | +$17,205 |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 528 | 3% | 1% |
| 10-25% | 347 | 15% | 5% |
| 25-50% | 60 | 33% | 0% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 512 | 4% | 1% |
| 10-25% | 381 | 15% | 4% |
| 25-50% | 72 | 32% | 0% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 667 | 4% | 2% |
| 10-25% | 479 | 14% | 4% |
| 25-50% | 45 | 35% | 0% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 985 | 4% | 1% |
| 10-25% | 779 | 14% | 5% |
| 25-50% | 65 | 34% | 2% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 2098 | 4% | 2% |
| 10-25% | 1541 | 14% | 4% |
| 25-50% | 140 | 32% | 2% |
| 50-75% | 5 | 53% | 0% |
| day | scored | buy calls | hits | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 5771 | 1140 | 54 | +$99,274 |
| 2026-09-15 | 3042 | 462 | 6 | +$47,999 |
| 2026-09-16 | 3071 | 500 | 22 | $4,651 |
Confident and wrong in both directions. This is the list that decides what feature gets added next.
| token | age | called | p(run) | actual | why it said so |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAMDEN | 1h | no run | 0.12 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| PERPSPAD | 6h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | +6.9 holders/min | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| APM | 6h | 5-50M | 0.05 | 1.0x | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| GPT6SOL | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | dev made 91 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4088 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| coin | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | dev made 42 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4116 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Mouse | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4116 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Mouse | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4116 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| BRCOLI | 6h | could run | 0.24 | RUGGED | curve filling 3%/min | dev has graduated one before | nobody ever looked at it [4080 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| DINU | 6h | no run | 0.07 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4080 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Trade | 6h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4076 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| AAPL | 6h | could run | 0.22 | RUGGED | +70.4 holders/min | real socials, original art | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4137 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| FOMOTRUMP | 6h | no run | 0.07 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| COOK | 6h | no run | 0.12 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | nobody ever looked at it [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| PRAXIS | 6h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| earnrail | 6h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| token | age | call | p(scam) | p(run) | because | ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nojob | 6h | no run | 0.30 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | nobody ever looked at it [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 65m |
| TRUMP | 6h | no run | 0.32 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4067 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 75m |
| launchpads | 6h | scam | 0.56 | 0.07 | bundled 33% | 19 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | duplicate art or socials | social picked it up: the whole chain fired [4073 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 177m |
| HYPEDCAT | 1h | could run | 0.16 | 0.26 | +2.2 holders/min | 5 smart wallets in | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | smart money came, it never reached social [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 200m |
| TITTIE | 6h | no run | 0.15 | 0.01 | bundled 22% | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4103 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 200m |
| Rasmr | 1h | could run | 0.16 | 0.18 | +5.5 holders/min | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 220m |
| CAMDEN | 1h | no run | 0.14 | 0.12 | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 242m |
| GREENBABY | 1h | could run | 0.13 | 0.18 | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4113 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| DOOROC | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | dev made 156 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4113 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| PRINU | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.05 | | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| DOOYET | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.03 | dev made 22 tokens, none ever graduated | curve filling 2%/min | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| LACY | 1h | no run | 0.12 | 0.05 | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| ALVEUS | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| ALVEUS | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| ALVEUS | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | dev made 184 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| ALVEUS | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | dev made 184 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| ALVEUS | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| ALVEUS | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | dev made 185 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| ALVEUS | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [4128 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 243m |
| Inusider | 6h | no run | 0.14 | 0.03 | bundled 38% | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | smart money came, it never reached social [3424 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 250m |
| CROW | 6h | no run | 0.17 | 0.12 | bundled 58% | 4 smart wallets in | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | smart money came, it never reached social [4080 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 260m |
| MILF | 6h | no run | 0.34 | 0.05 | | people looked, no smart money followed [3440 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 300m |
| Boneka | 6h | no run | 0.34 | 0.06 | top 10 hold 82% | dev has graduated one before | nobody ever looked at it [4112 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 313m |
| ZIAS | 6h | no run | 0.16 | 0.08 | bundled 33% | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | smart money came, it never reached social [3405 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 324m |
| chud | 6h | no run | 0.32 | 0.02 | top 10 hold 78% | nobody ever looked at it [4089 launches/2h, 1% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 330m |
| age band | predicts | name | brier on unseen day | trained on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m | rug | lr-rug-15m-09161003 | 0.1206 | 1271 rows |
| 1h | rug | lr-rug-1h-09141302 | 0.1447 | 109 rows |
| 1m | rug | lr-rug-1m-09141438 | 0.0453 | 268 rows |
| 5m | rug | lr-rug-5m-09141352 | 0.1395 | 202 rows |
| 6h | rug | lr-rug-6h-09151343 | 0.1491 | 297 rows |
What is launching, and what is actually working. Every raw number is judged against this cohort, not on its own: twenty holders in five minutes means different things on a dead night and in a run.
Launchpads behind the runners: pump_mayhem 67%, Pump.fun 20%, meteora_virtual_curve 14%
Words in the names of things that ran: 34percent, 999, agent, alpaca, alpha, always, amc, anonymous, anthropic, baloon, bbp, beer, bigtittycoin, bigtityco, bike, bikecat, blast, blastcoin, bobi, bom, bra, btc, buckazoid, bugbro
| token | pad | paired to | mcap | holders | age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COINISM | Pump.fun | 5 | $164,771,654 | 1563 | 69m |
| WOTF | Pump.fun | 5 | $146,587,009 | 1066 | 77m |
| COINISM | Pump.fun | 5 | $144,048,957 | 2013 | 83m |
| WOFI | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $33,489,535 | 705 | 26m |
| USDF | Pump.fun | 5 | $24,729,398 | 2064 | 81m |
| COINISM | Pump.fun | 5 | $24,587,146 | 1360 | 116m |
| PAID | Pump.fun | 5 | $22,284,109 | 1149 | 6m |
| IDEAPAD | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $12,461,599 | 337 | 98m |
| PERPSPAD | Pump.fun | 5 | $8,447,638 | 2653 | 6m |
| WOFI | Pump.fun | 5 | $6,363,174 | 2391 | 10m |
| PAID | Pump.fun | 5 | $6,072,014 | 213 | 26m |
| LEGO | Pump.fun | 5 | $2,055,475 | 2326 | 85m |
535957 roster rows across 16294 tokens, 148932 distinct wallets. 39837 have a track record, 10308 of those on 3 tokens or more. 179971 pairs of wallets have turned up together on more than one token. Average entry, 2.5 minutes after launch.
| wallet | tokens | ran | hit rate | vs base | times early |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3JrrvL9XfBbMpm8Yy7RPuXqn1K6KyYXgYsHjQtfLuz9C | 5 | 3 | 38% | 14.47x | 1 |
| 3h7G2jTn71Cn6RSp4rgVKdyYE2Wd6P9L7tnjsg5MYtrR | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| 6ahUG8yZ3KTXmuDt2RzcfvMM9qCu1rcn6gYrmBWBL2pq | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| 7AmMbMENf9TpDwK33EdyXdm1nuvM1NbFBAsSZP7w9wXi | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| 9AJJvRNjuBhpoTG72QJPLWU475Azp6yLaASZGBwCqpei | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| AJu8KZCjQL9XLZ9qcdW8aHo6g49A8oMNtkhrqH5ZZMS6 | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| B343yfeyY9ZpBuSCpkrspxeCvXwLfBBHUK15rWSEsthF | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| B5x5C7HEjYhRBJuWcThax85FYK4q5hELA2Tttdmws7Yf | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| BohonUUpU3kf1Ro9Efd3pqtrvJcvWcbqtnuz3G4RHMdm | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| C8eqWTtoyggvYH1GyHNvwLg59Fs1ANHkjeKoPYBVm1eG | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| CRZcbSbSLk6MvYoACLGRaMmnWviK6daQ1WpzW5ZKQLZp | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
| CoiRQWsz5Wtx8T2767wZmNxRhumpxuwz67RVbwTab957 | 3 | 2 | 35% | 13.03x | 3 |
Hit rate is shrunk toward the 2.7% base rate, so a wallet with one lucky token does not show a 4x edge. "Ran" means the token peaked above $100,000 AFTER that wallet bought, never before.
| 09-16 23:37 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-16 23:36 | freeze-err | ProgrammingError('Cannot operate on a closed database.') |
| 09-16 23:34 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-16 23:30 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-16 23:28 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-16 23:25 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-16 23:21 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-16 23:21 | freeze-err | ProgrammingError('Cannot operate on a closed database.') |
| 09-16 23:17 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-16 23:11 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-16 23:08 | train-err | rench.py", line 1186, in trainer fit_and_promote(c, X, y, days, thr, tss, band, target, "lr") File "/opt/trench/trench.py", line 1116, in fit_and_promote c.execute("INSERT OR REPLACE INTO model" sqlite3.OperationalError: database is locked |
| 09-16 23:08 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |