Review: gates and runners

Made 23 Oct 07:41 Bangkok. Read only, no Claude in the loop. Only Ben switches live (D-030). Gate rule: 2 profitable days without bugs (D-031). Runner = Robinhood coin with ATH $1.0M+ (big: $5.0M+), from runtrack.

North star: runner capture (yesterday)

0 of 9 runners made us money (0%)

step	runners	share
born (ATH $1M+)	9	100%
seen by any bot	9	100%
picked by any bot (paper or live)	0	0%
made money (live or paper test)	0	0%

Weekly profit check (last 7 days)

item	USD
live P&L (fmmc5, real money)	$-13.31
paper P&L (fml2, not real)	$16.59
running cost per week (costs.json, estimate: Ben edits it)	$104.00
real money result after costs	$-117.31

Picker learning (last 7 days, PP Data, hourly)

10x hit rate of each picker book; shadow books end in _h; dumb baseline = every coin round 5 scored: - of - hit 10x (0.0%).

picker	book	picks	closed	10x hits	hit rate	vs baseline
round5	blend_top2	31	6	6	100.0%	-
round5	rule_fee001_first	322	49	46	93.9%	-
round5	m10_top2	158	8	7	87.5%	-
round5	rule_r6_clean_up_2apps	112	13	10	76.9%	-
30s	champion	11	8	6	75.0%	-
round5	base_top5_nodead_h	71	18	12	66.7%	-
round5	v5_top2	29	9	6	66.7%	-
round5	base_top5_nodead	131	23	15	65.2%	-
round5	v5_top5_h	62	13	8	61.5%	-
round5	blend_top2_h	13	5	3	60.0%	-
round5	v5_top2_h	18	5	3	60.0%	-
60s	champion	192	63	36	57.1%	-
round5	v5_top1	12	6	3	50.0%	-
round5	v5_top5	127	30	15	50.0%	-
round5	f5_20s_top5	86	29	14	48.3%	-
round5	rule_smart2_clean	227	27	13	48.1%	-
round5	id5_top1	47	16	6	37.5%	-
round5	rand_gated	88	11	4	36.4%	-
round5	id5_top2	110	41	14	34.1%	-
round5	id5_top5	239	90	29	32.2%	-
round5	rand_30s	121	20	5	25.0%	-
round5	ev_top5	138	12	2	16.7%	-

Gates

Live 1: Price Predict mc5 (fmmc5): WARNING: 16 LOSSES IN A ROW (info only, no loss stop since D-038)

$50 a trade. 39 closed trades, total $17.35, without the best trade $-102.31 (best $119.67). Losses in a row now: 16 of 10.

Bangkok day	closed trades	wins	P&L	bugs	counts toward 2 days
2026-10-09	8	1	$79.94	0	yes
2026-10-10	16	1	$33.03	0	yes
2026-10-11	4	0	$-20.86	0	no
2026-10-12	9	0	$-61.45	0	no
2026-10-16	0	0	$0.00	1	no
2026-10-17	2	0	$-13.31	0	no

Paper 2: AI picks (fml2): NOT YET (0 of 2 days)

$10 paper. 33 closed trades, total $92.30, without the best trade $44.87 (best $47.43). Losses in a row now: 1 of 10.

Bangkok day	closed trades	wins	P&L	bugs	counts toward 2 days
2026-10-15	3	1	$38.04	0	yes
2026-10-16	2	0	$-16.45	1	no
2026-10-18	1	0	$-0.09	0	no
2026-10-19	1	0	$-1.84	0	no
2026-10-20	1	0	$-0.37	0	no
2026-10-21	3	1	$29.43	0	yes
2026-10-22	5	1	$-0.54	0	no

Paper 1b: AI picks, no quiet exit (fml2v): WARNING: 13 LOSSES IN A ROW (info only, no loss stop since D-038)

$10 paper. 33 closed trades, total $318.88, without the best trade $121.11 (best $197.77). Losses in a row now: 13 of 10.

Bangkok day	closed trades	wins	P&L	bugs	counts toward 2 days
2026-10-15	3	1	$25.74	1	no
2026-10-16	2	0	$-16.57	1	no
2026-10-18	1	0	$-6.84	0	no
2026-10-19	1	0	$-1.85	0	no
2026-10-20	1	0	$-1.51	0	no
2026-10-21	3	0	$-20.12	0	no
2026-10-22	5	0	$-18.90	0	no

Dumb baseline (last 3 days)

Does picking beat taking everything the bot saw? Share of coins that became runners.

bot	runners in its picks	runners in everything it saw	picking adds value?
fmmc5 (cap band rule)	0 of 0 (-)	23 of 573 (4%)	-
aipaper (AI score)	0 of 119 (0%)	21 of 2867 (1%)	no, not better than taking all
aipaper30 (AI score)	0 of 0 (-)	0 of 0 (-)	-
aipaper5 (AI score)	0 of 0 (-)	0 of 0 (-)	-

Runners born yesterday (2026-10-22): 9

coin	ATH	venue	mc5	aipaper	aipaper30	aipaper5	fml2
0x661041 (big) 0x661041ee	$33.0M	kit:other	MISSED cap $43k at 5 min, under $250k	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
0x38cab8 (big) 0x38cab840	$7.3M	kit:other	MISSED cap $115k at 5 min, under $250k	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
Macca (big) 0xb7b95ebc	$6.4M	pool_uniswap_v4	NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pool_uniswap_v4)	MISSED score 0.64 below the line	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
0x9987b2 0x9987b292	$4.4M	kit:other	MISSED cap $87k at 5 min, under $250k	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
GF 0xfed6b187	$4.1M	pons_v2	NOT SEEN not a v4 ETH pool fmmc5 watches (venue pons_v2)	MISSED score 0.26 below the line	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
0x30de7a 0x30de7ae4	$3.6M	kit:other	MISSED never checked (late or feed gap)	MISSED score 0.05 below the line	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
0x1baf85 0x1baf852c	$1.8M	kit:other	MISSED cap $10k at 5 min, under $250k	MISSED score 0.06 below the line	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
0xf90c4e 0xf90c4eae	$1.2M	kit:other	MISSED cap $112k at 5 min, under $250k	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-
0xc164e5 0xc164e51e	$1.1M	kit:other	MISSED cap $31k at 5 min, under $250k	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	NOT SEEN never scored	-

Runners by venue (last 3 days)

venue	runners	seen by no bot at all
pool_uniswap_v4	39	25
kit:other	19	0
pons_v2	3	1
kit:B	2	0
stable-fee0-wash	1	1

Runners we picked and made money on (since yesterday): 0

bot	coin	result	exit

Runners we picked but sold too early (exit lesson): 0

We bought the right coin, the exit sold it at a loss, and it still became a runner.

bot	coin	cap at buy	our result	exit	coin ATH later

Picks we should not have made (since yesterday, lost and never ran): 4

bot	coin	cap at buy	result	exit
fml2	0xfcf68df4	$3k	0.96x	dead_60s
fml2	0xd1eaf70c	$2k	0.67x	dead_60s
fml2	0x8a5a602d	$3k	0.46x	dead_60s
fml2	0x886fd44a	$3k	0.94x	dead_60s

Data for analysts: misses.csv (every runner a bot did not pick, with the reason), history.jsonl (one line per night).