v3 cap-continuation 150-300k wide trail 35%

Testmgr3 · miss family (capc variant) · paper, $10 a trade, since 20 Oct · idea #703 · updated 23 Oct 11:32 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven

Waiting for: fwd n>=20; honest replay (no look-ahead) n286 0.81x med 0.65x; locked-code gate on; decide by 24 Oct

Still open:

auditor 5-check

Paper run, no real money

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean<1.0x with upper80<1.05 at fwd n>=20; decide by 24 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Total P&L

-$6.70

Trades done

6 up, 24 down

Best trade

3.7x

Exit rule shown

cross 150-300k, +15s entry, stop .7, trail 35% of peak, hunt 3M+

Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 287 trades, mean 0.81x, -$550.01 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.

P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)

Each step is a trade with exit rule H, numbered in time order.

Every trade (exit rule H)

#	Pool	Time	In	Why sold	Result
30	0x76b69d49796d31f5d4f73a92495710700b02f341	23 Oct 10:22	$10	trail	0.65x (-34.8%) -$3.48
29	0x827e8814a273cb4b30c19025f85337dfe6966a64	23 Oct 07:42	$10	trail	0.81x (-19.2%) -$1.92
28	0x09b3d1142d71faee4baf8b4057b724dd225ba314	23 Oct 06:49	$10	trail	0.62x (-38.3%) -$3.83
27	0x86cd81fb640929036210f002eab9e35ac9b4be07	23 Oct 00:48	$10	pull	0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00
26	0x8dbebbf1e65d9d185d9fdfac59c155b5c6d84964	22 Oct 23:47	$10	trail	2.38x (+138.5%) +$13.85
25	0x056ed3cccadfb0d00c771d6924aafd743fab5710	22 Oct 21:56	$10	trail	0.61x (-39.4%) -$3.94
24	0xfdfab49212efbb0701b8c2ef5d2b8e1e70b8fed6	22 Oct 20:54	$10	trail	0.64x (-36.2%) -$3.62
23	0xaa9844f592dfab4cdc8ad96c0fbfd0137fae00b8	22 Oct 20:11	$10	time	3.33x (+233.0%) +$23.30
22	0x162d63543b01ae0032034d870de4b8d43dbed903	22 Oct 19:52	$10	trail	0.66x (-34.4%) -$3.44
21	0xce6bd090ea32a438da0f9d2bfa2a814ff41169f2	22 Oct 18:34	$10	trail	0.65x (-34.8%) -$3.48
20	0x241919430981ae65d036a3fad4d207ba9c192ccc	22 Oct 15:45	$10	trail	0.71x (-28.6%) -$2.86
19	0x775b9201eae9512a7626818e5b8775d072b9832f	22 Oct 11:05	$10	trail	1.09x (+9.0%) +$0.90
18	0xe3a073a531d822fb2f8056dd1fea6e876519909b	22 Oct 10:40	$10	trail	0.64x (-36.0%) -$3.60
17	0x9e06e292ed5334114a01bc1aff87537f26947620	22 Oct 08:59	$10	trail	0.65x (-34.6%) -$3.46
16	0x1e2b4bbabf505375f45f0a0b39f4187a93b6c026	22 Oct 06:43	$10	trail	0.63x (-37.3%) -$3.73
15	0xad7ff23810f149d0900987f2b74790ee6723cda6	22 Oct 04:26	$10	trail	3.69x (+268.6%) +$26.86
14	0x9871a6173bbb4c2852ca249a83428849618d09d5	22 Oct 02:08	$10	trail	0.66x (-34.2%) -$3.42
13	0x8b9dfc554e7fbbfb3100529d8b90f123e7cc11da	21 Oct 23:45	$10	trail	0.66x (-34.4%) -$3.44
12	0x82fc11f076817e52438d8e41da54edf086d829aa	21 Oct 19:03	$10	trail	2.00x (+100.0%) +$10.00
11	0x9cf6cdfd1c414bdc14594a67c7ca3eda8b1ea568	21 Oct 17:23	$10	trail	0.65x (-35.1%) -$3.51
10	0x5e2f7b0c94c972401b6ef5382ac355a70a261223	21 Oct 11:57	$10	trail	0.64x (-36.0%) -$3.60
9	0xe9d0f67a79a952ff7928c3940a88b5289101dafe	21 Oct 08:02	$10	trail	0.90x (-10.3%) -$1.03
8	0x0d6d75169f96142a32a5abe54f1f6b13355a2402	21 Oct 06:54	$10	trail	0.59x (-40.9%) -$4.09
7	0x55e0a094ca5d911bcddaea0d4d2751aca668cb83	21 Oct 01:36	$10	trail	0.63x (-36.7%) -$3.67
6	0x756860e1abab7cd15847c9c643354b9322389cdd	21 Oct 01:03	$10	trail	0.66x (-34.1%) -$3.41
5	0x230934a337e8c27220ad094963590b807712701a	20 Oct 22:45	$10	trail	0.66x (-34.4%) -$3.44
4	0x323c591c3b9faa00d58d4568d0b9334e2b22175f	20 Oct 21:52	$10	trail	0.15x (-85.4%) -$8.54
3	0x0e2521121dede0064f9439ccb026175c62d814a7	20 Oct 20:42	$10	trail	0.61x (-38.9%) -$3.89
2	0x7c06e52a1c1f5713c1c39a30530536c591174fff	20 Oct 18:49	$10	trail	2.07x (+106.8%) +$10.68
1	0x6a723aa4637eb685fd5759a7b5eb3e296f30e755	20 Oct 16:38	$10	trail	0.71x (-28.9%) -$2.89

Full Test Manager report

# v3caps paper (testmgr) 23 Oct 04:32 UTC
H 150-300k WIDE trail 35% hunt 3M+. Open legs 0.
- H: n 317, mean 0.82x, median 0.65x, win 59, pull 45, time 5